How does Libya affect the Maghreb? 

June 27, 2022

Specialising in North African studies, Ferhat Polat is an analyst and researcher on the Libya crisis. His works have appeared in such publications as The New Arab, The Africa Report, TRT World and Anadolu Agency. Polat explores the nature of Libya’s impact on North Africa, one of the defining features of the region. 

Maghrebi countries, especially Algeria and Tunisia, suffered a great deal after Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow. An abundance of weapons, desert borders, and the ability of non-state actors to operate across them have, since the 2011 war, increased the threat level for the region. 

The main reason behind Algeria and Tunisia's engagement in Libya then is, unsurprisingly, stability. 

Still adherent to its principles of national sovereignty, non-intervention, and the diplomatic resolution of conflict, Algiers has been among the key supporters of the UN-backed Libyan Political Agreement. The view here is that "only Libyans can build their country's future", an approach which invariably stresses elections, intra-national dialogue, and a compromise between actors. 

The limited achievements of this process thus far have, nonetheless, left Algeria vulnerable. While nothing of the scale of the 2013 In Amenas tragedy has happened since, Algeria's borders continue to be criss-crossed by a network of illicit and illegal smuggling routes. Cigarettes, guns, drugs, fuel, people, there is concern within the Algerian state that such networks will increasingly serve as conduit for radical Islamist groups. 

For Tunisia, the interest in its neighbour is slightly more complex. As well as a stability interest, worsened by fragmentation of the West Libyan security landscape, Tunisia also holds an important economic one. 

Before the conflict, Libyan-Tunisian commercial relationships were at a historic high, and many joint projects had recently been set. The two states were about to finalize the installation of a free economic zone between Ben Guerdane in Tunisia and Libya’s Ra's Ajdir border development area. 

But since 2011 these projects have come to a standstill. Trade has dried up and oil supply is beset by constant disruption. Indeed, according to the World Bank, between 2011 and 2015, the Libyan civil war reduced Tunisia's growth by a quarter. With an interlinked political and security crisis continuing to undermine state institutions and weaken the economy, the potential of a Tunisian-Libyan economic partnership is unlikely to be realised any time soon. 

Lacking a border with Libya, Morocco's interest in the North African country leans further towards opportunism. Mixed in along legitimate concerns for regional security, Morocco sees in Libya a vector for international influence. By positioning itself as a key mediator in Libya's political process, so the theory goes, the Moroccan monarchy "hopes to advance its international standing by increasing its value to key allies" at the expense of Algeria, in particular. 

The 2015 Skhirat agreement was no doubt a key milestone on the road to achieving such an objective. 

From security to economics and international influence, the countries of the Maghreb are deeply interested in what is happening in Libya. Often overlooked in international reporting, this regional impact is essential to understanding how North Africa functions and the distinct geopolitical environment in which it exists. Tying the Maghreb to the Sahel, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and beyond, it is Libya that places North Africa at a true crossroads of global politics.

Ferhat Polat is a Researcher at the TRT World Research Centre who specialises in North Africa geopolitics and security with a particular focus on Libya.

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