A site for growing international tension? The continuation of business as usual? Accusations of Western neocolonialism and Russian obstruction accompanied UNSMIL’s latest three-month extension. Neither the language nor outcome is anything new, but the Ukraine context lends them more weight than previous. A surprising op-ed by Bachagha suggests alignments may be more fluid than presumed, though its authenticity is contested. As Algeria becomes the latest accused of meddling, are we on the eve of Libya’s ‘re-internationalisation’?
Internally, the situation is no more harmonious as the stand-off between rival governments continues. An agreement with armed protestors temporarily restored Libya’s largest oil export terminal, but output remains at its lowest since the second civil war. Does Bachagha’s ‘Misrata diplomacy’ offer a last hope for compromise? In the meantime impunity is the rule, with state-funded militia implicated in possible crimes against humanity.
Discord also frames neighbouring Tunisia, as its popular president forges ahead with his ‘new republic’. On Sunday, he announced launch of a constitutional drafting committee and national dialogue. Greeted cynically by the UGTT, the latter is notable in its exclusion of serious political opposition. Indeed, rumours are already circulating that a dissolution of opposition parties is imminent. But as recordings appearing to show concerns with the President’s psychological health spread, are the first cracks in his camp beginning to emerge?
Elsewhere attention is on the state of freedoms in the country. RSF’s 2022 Press Freedom Index reveals a remarkable 21 place slide, though a change in methodology complicates comparison. It is consistent with a picture of routine intimidation against critics, protested by the national journalism union on Thursday.
If Algeria’s index improved, realities on-the-ground tell a different story. Liberte’s closure last month reveals an industry embattled by repression and economic hardship. Further closures are expected. With arbitrary travel bans and the 24-hour detention of Hirak figure Karim Tabbou , the state’s strategy of harassing, arresting and re-arresting its opponents shows little sign of abating.
In Morocco, a similar game of imprisonment and release is playing out. The pardon of 29 convicted terrorists was followed swiftly by the sentencing of a human rights activist to two years in jail. But with neither escalating repression nor neutrality on Ukraine set to disrupt its image as a regional model in Washington, pressure for reform is likely to remain subdued.
Meanwhile, the Makhzen’s quest for hydrocarbons received some positive signs. Seven months since its closure, the Maghreb-Europe Gas pipeline now stands ready to deliver gas from Spain. A Nigerian supply is also on the horizon. OPEC announced funding for a second phase of research into a Nigeria-Morocco pipeline, which is attracting Russian financial interest. Perceived as increasingly significant to European energy needs, it’s likely to trigger a Western response. Are Morocco’s hopes to hit an ‘oil jackpot’ a fantasy? Or will they complicate further the delicate politics of energy in North Africa?
North Africa Watch is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.
