Following overtures by western leaders, it’s tempting to read in the Russian foreign minister’s visit to Algiers a battle for influence on NATO’s southern flank. But while the Russia-Algeria relationship is certainly informed by the context of a ‘new cold war’, it is perhaps simplistic to reduce it to it. Indeed, with relations pre-dating formal independence, Algeria and Russia hold a range of strategic and ideological alignments in which local factors, the Sahel, and mounting hostility with Morocco carry as much weight as Ukraine.
If ties with Moscow are as stable as ever those with Europe face familiar challenges. In a moment of telling symbolic divergence, the Algerian President declared the 1945 Setif massacres could ‘never be forgotten’, while his French counterpart delivered a VE day commemoration conspicuous in its absence. Memory, it seems, continues to be a fault-line in relations. Realpolitik may confine it to rhetoric, however, as a pipeline project to connect France to Algerian supply re-emerges.
Meanwhile, Morocco’s relations with Israel continue to be a source of tension. Regionally, negotiations to purchase cruise missiles could mark another point of escalation in an emerging arms race. Domestically, events in Palestine and celebration of Israeli independence in Marrakesh raise the question of how the Makhzen will handle controversial flashpoints politically. Such concerns certainly problematise the notion that normalization unambiguously strengthens Morocco’s hand. The Palestinian Nakba on Sunday will be another moment to look out for…
Indeed, with political violence at universities and the intermittent drumbeat of foiled terrorist attacks, Moroccan politics are perhaps less harmonious than stability would imply. Nor is there sign the state’s brand of human rights repression and unaccountable governance will change anytime soon. But as foreign leaders meet in Marrakesh and the Netherlands becomes the latest to favour Saharan autonomy, is Morocco’s hardline pragmatism paying off? On the Atlantic coast, migrants continue to perish at a depressing rate with separate incidents claiming 44 and 30 fatalities respectively.
Rallies in support of Kais Saied became the latest lacklustre display of political commitment in central Tunis. Poorly attended, they fuel the belief it is disillusionment not support that underwrites his popular base. Nonetheless, little is obstructing his consolidation of power. On Monday, the President appointed new pro-government figures to Tunisia’s electoral commission. Expulsing foreign observers may be his next step. His ability to neutralize the powerful UGTT is similarly undisturbed, with the latter continuing to pedal a politically ambiguous line.
Indeed, despite surviving a rumoured dissolution, Tunisia’s political opposition appears politically impotent. Denied by the interior ministry, former Ennahda PM Jebali became the latest high-profile figure to be purportedly arrested. With protests planned on Sunday, it remains doubtful whether they will extend beyond a small group of Islamist loyalists and principled democratic opponents, though food price hikes may buoy their efforts. This has led to calls for the US to leverage the IMF to pressure Saied, though whether the impetus for change should come from outside is up for debate.
Setting-up in Sirte, Bashagha continues to establish himself as a self-styled compromise figure. But with his national dialogue unlikely to break the political impasse, room for manoeuvre with Russia-linked General Haftar may be narrowing. Indeed, speculation abounds that last week’s op-ed incident is telling of a growing tension between the two.
Elsewhere, the push to agree a constitutional framework for elections drags on, with a second round of talks due on Sunday. Despite their strong international backing and the threat of spoiler sanctions, prospects for a democratic resolution appear as distant as ever. Has the UN mission become another institution for political dysfunction in the country? A podcast with Chatham house explores the possibility for a more bottom-up approach.
North Africa Watch is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.
