Punctuating a months-long stalemate, gunshots in Tripoli show quite forcefully that Libya’s crisis exists outside the Kremlin, Ankara and other world capitals. It is susceptible to taking its own turns whether cajoled by these powers or not. But where events highlight shortcomings in privileging international over domestic interpretations of the conflict, attention too is on its immediate fallout.
For many the clashes evidence the limitations of Bashagha as a compromise figure able to unite the country. Failure to get Tripoli militia onboard expose he is trapped by an East-West divide his retreat to Sirte will do little to upend. On the other hand, Bashagha’s withdrawal remains consistent with his image as a responsible actor seeking peaceful solutions, while reinforcing the incumbent’s as willing to cling to power by any means. How this is received, by Libyans and foreigners alike, is yet to be seen.
In neighbouring Tunisia, a showdown of a different kind is occurring. Attracting some 2,000 under the banner of opposing Saied’s reforms, turnout to the National Salvations Front’s first rally was nevertheless below expectation. If popular pressure is not yet the answer, the opposition may take encouragement in rumours PM Najla Bouden will resign. If it happens it will be the second such high profile case this year in what could be the early signs of discontent in the president’s camp. In the meantime, lawmakers continue to be jailed by military courts, while international human rights groups decry the escalating repression.
Tunisia’s GDP for the first quarter performed slightly better than last year, buoyed by growth in the tourism and agricultural sectors. Unlikely to change an overall bleak economic assessment, it does come as somewhat welcome news ahead of the country’s summer season. Further good news came in the announcement of $50million of US investments for the tourism industry.
Westwards there are signs Algeria’s opaque political system is entering into a jostling phase as Tebboune moves further into the second half of his term. Following on from a national consultation with political parties, Tebboune signaled a desire to reshuffle his cabinet. It comes as a new director of foreign intelligence is appointed, and a former military official close to the Bouteflika regime sentenced to death. In a country where such actions usually reflect behind-the-scenes maneuvers, neither can be taken as politically insignificant.
But there are also developments in Algeria’s foreign policy space, with the President making a visit to Turkey. Signing some 16 bilateral agreements to double trade and investment, the trip indicated a broad alignment on regional issues, on Libya, the Sahel, and (surprisingly) Tunisia. If Algeria is keeping its line with Turkey open, however, its one with Israel remains decisively shut. This week, lawmakers submitted a bill to criminalize normalization with the Jewish state, a move which would bring it further out of step with the monarchies of the Gulf and Morocco.
Indeed, normalization remains a live issue in the latter, with the Palestinian Nakba bringing protests to cities across Morocco. Not the largest in scale they were nonetheless notable in the broad coalition of voices assembled. The subject remains one with potential to mobilise on a broad, cross-partisan basis.
Symbolically drawing the line under a two-year dispute with its northern neighbour, Morocco reopened its land border with the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. But as events in Ukraine drive the perception that Europe is not ‘tough enough’ on its competitors, could a more hardline, Machiavellian policy be in the works for Rabat?
North Africa Watch is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.
