Nearing what promises to be a controversial referendum, Tunisia’s leader appears isolated from all bar the population who elected him. Threatened with expulsion, Europe’s Venice Commission was this week branded a foreign interferer. Emblematic of a populist sovereigntism perhaps the most stable aspect of his rule, the move was followed promptly by a mass dismissal of judges. Unlikely to gain him favour internationally, there appears little in the US’s strategy of hard words and threatened aid cuts to deter Saied from his course.

But if the president’s rule is reliance-on-the-street-and-no-one-else, national strikes for mid-June pose a serious threat. Announced by the UGTT, they will mobilise Tunisians on a rationale outside of the democratic one that has so far proven unsuccessful. Will economic grievance take the people from Saied?

Criticism from the Algerian president was, however, unexpected. Made in Rome, the comments towards Tunisia’s roadmap come shortly after a declared alignment with Turkey. Support for its North African neighbour was nonetheless reaffirmed. Seeking to compensate for Moroccan gains to the west, is Algeria flexing its influence over Tunisia to curry favour with new partners in the Mediterranean?

Elsewhere attention is on human rights. Deemed hostile to both those in the country and its diaspora, Algeria’s treatment of activists continues to generate negative coverage. This week it was joined by a statement from MSF, condemning the ‘inhumane’ expulsion of some 15,000 migrants since January.

In Morocco, normalization with Israel continues at pace. The opening of two i24 media offices in Casablanca and Rabat garnered the most attention, but come on the back of a research deal into climate action, and a potential Israeli bid for a billion dollar construction contract. If Morocco’s Israel ties are deepening and expanding, the full scope of its impact on the region is as yet undetermined.

But while emphasis tends towards the Israeli relation providing Morocco a position of strength, important pressure points remain. Indeed, alongside inflation and repression, normalization featured as a mobilising factor for sizeable protests in Casablanca on Sunday. It is rumoured Morocco will turn to the international debt market in December, while the plight of Sahrawi activists continues to be decried by rights organisations. With economic pressures simmering, advancement of a Morocco-Nigeria pipeline will offer welcome news.

In Libya, the destabilizing impact of foreign fighters is under the spotlight again. Unscrupulous, unregulated, and behest to the command of outside powers they add further complexity to what is already an intractable crisis. As HRW calls on the ICC to investigate Wagner’s deployment of banned landmines, is there a way out of the stalemate?

But the term stalemate may itself be optimistic. Holding its inaugural session in Sirte, there is speculation Libya’s newest government is not just digging in but preparing for conflict. While contested, these claims bring attention to the fact that, in the absence of a viable peace process, Libya’s crisis is not frozen but worsening. In the meantime, oil from the country’s aged infrastructure spills into its desert and is held at its ports.

North Africa Watch is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.