What’s in a number? Welcome news in European capitals, rapid revision of Libya’s oil output from 100,000 to 700,000 bpd underscores the disorder that has come to characterize the North African nation. So too its strategic significance, one that has only increased in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
If Bashagha is keen to frame the blockade as a grassroots movement, however, the question of who controls Libya’s conflict remains. Local militia, international powers, political elites? It may be tempting to take the cynical view that it is the vested interests of all these that prolongs it. But with deep division over what it means to be Libyan and a vision for its future, is conflict rooted as much in society as the ‘bad actors’ that represent it?
Outside such fundamental questions, Libya’s political process is clearly breaking down. With talks in Cairo failing over basic disagreements, there seems little in the way of a plan B. Can African diplomacy offer a solution? Meanwhile, tension between Tripoli factions mount, breaking into violence on Wednesday, as Turkey extends its military mandate and Bashagha tries again to distance himself from Russia.
Amidst protests, strikes and repression, Tunisia is edging towards a new constitution that promises to be more secular and more presidential. The prospect was greeted by demonstrations and extension of the judge’s strike into a third week. A hunger strike may follow. If popular pressure is certainly building, however, it still lacks the unity and scale needed for a truly significant breakthrough.
Indeed, reaction from the authorities remains broadly consistent, with arrests, military trials, and threat of charges for anyone promoting a boycott. These come alongside rumours a further 400 judges face the sack should the constitution be passed. As the IMF announces its intention to pursue negotiations on Saied’s unpopular reform programme, will the president be able to sufficiently contain opposition from the UGTT?
In neighbouring Algeria a game of international chess is playing out. Following on its break with Spain, the government ordered tour operators to freeze activity with the country. Closer industrial ties with Russia may go some way to offsetting the cost, as would a trans-Saharan pipeline to rival Morocco’s ambition. Regionally, Algeria is preparing to leave its mark on the November Arab League Summit, with the Saudi heir due to visit next month. Will Algeria’s formula of ‘pro-Russian neutrality’ be enough to swing momentum in its favour?
Domestically, attention is on continued persecution of the organized elements of a now-dead Hirak. While opposition parties have long struggled to keep themselves relevant, the sentencing of legal professionals marks a new and unprecedented development. It will likely garner increasing international coverage as and if it continues.
To the west, Morocco is playing its own diplomatic game. Welcoming a fourth Israeli minister, the first to explicitly support Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, relations continue to deepen despite condemnation from pro-Palestinian groups. At the same time, annual exercises with the US Army underscore a careful policy of ‘pro-American neutrality’, one with the potential to threaten its neighbour.
But with record inflation and annual growth predicted at only 1%, pressures on the regime remain. Nor is there any indication the government will raise interest rates. Under such conditions, can Morocco last the year without major unrest? The days around the Eid al-Adha festival may prove a flashpoint, with families struggling to afford food and livestock.
North Africa Watch is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.
