In North Africa, fallout from Ukraine is being framed in terms of its impacts on stability. Useful to an extent, it is nonetheless important not to lose sight of the significance of Ukraine as an ‘ideological moment’ for the region.

Building for several years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nonetheless shocked the world system. Akin to many other wars in terms of human suffering (of which there is plenty) its geopolitical significance is certainly striking.

Most immediate is the much cited impact on the ‘global security architecture’. Framed as a ‘second cold war’, the arena of US-Russia competition, it is claimed, is dangerously transitioning to one of conflict and open hostility.

Perhaps unsurprisingly then, the fallout on North Africa is interpreted first-and-foremost through a stability lens. The region’s prevailing political order, it seems, is being put to the test.

Of exposure and opportunity

This narrative plays out as a mix of exposures and opportunities facing North African states.

In terms of exposures, rising commodity prices (most notably grain) are compounding inflationary pressure already evocative of pre-Arab Spring levels. It’s a picture worsened by regional drought, having so far manifested in national strikes and protests in Moroccan cities.

Confronted with a looming fiscal crisis, Tunisia is next on everybody’s list, and there is expectation that social pressures will fuel political discontent in Algeria.

But exposure also comes in the form of a Russia-NATO hostility that threatens to open up North Africa as a new theatre of conflict.

Here much attention has been directed to Libya, where Russian mercenaries and NATO-member Turkey have before engaged in fighting. The idea is that the fragile international entente upon which Libyan security has emerged, is now unsustainable.

Mixed into this picture, however, is the idea that North African states may be able to leverage developments to their advantage.

Rising gas prices have presented a boon to energy-exporting Algeria, able to deploy the extra revenues to buy social peace. It’s not unreasonable to presume a buffered Algerian state may help stabilise neighbouring Tunisia, given close relations between them.

Increasing geostrategic significance within a Russia-NATO rivalry can also carry opportunity. North African states have a long history of manipulating foreign interests to their benefit, as well as being victims to them.

Ukraine as an ideological moment

But while the stability implications for North Africa may be real and significant, this should not preclude consideration of Ukraine as an ‘ideological moment’.

Much as the US invasion of Iraq opened a new chapter in how state’s defined themselves in relation to the West and its ‘War on Terror’, a new cold war could likewise shift the ideological dial.

Already there are signs a new ‘politics of neutrality’ is taking hold in Africa.

Though the vast majority of the world voted in favour of UNGA’s Resolution condemning Russia, half of African nations were either absent or abstained.

North Africa was no exception to this rule.

With Libya and Tunisia weighing in against Russia, Algeria and Morocco were notably silent.

While Algeria’s stance was readily attributed to its strategic alignments with Russia, Morocco challenges the notion it is realpolitik alone governing North Africa’s decisions. Designated a major non-NATO ally, strong relations with the US meant that, for many observers, its reticence came as a surprise.

Underlying the unwillingness of both to commit, however, may be a deeper ideological attachment to the idea of neutrality.

Coming from state traditions that have long defined themselves in relation to their ability to escape global hegemony, their actions are perhaps more ideologically consistent than given credit.

From anti-colonialism and revolutionary third worldism, to modern-day pragmatism, the impulse to reject global hegemonic pressure is nothing new. Indeed, it is core to the political narratives deployed by North African states to justify their very existence.

As the war nears its second month, the ways in which a new politics of neutrality plays out across the region is something to watch for.

While it may yet be too early to tell its exact form, as with the first cold war, it seems, the question of ideology is back on the cards.

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